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Flashing yellow light of the U.S. economy

17.5% and 32%. U.S. stock market value of the share of total world stock market capitalization has increased 29% in 1988 to 53% in 1999. 60% of international stock funds with the United States on the S & P 500 Index. U.S. share of global foreign exchange reserves in 1990 from 51% to 66% of the end of 1999. In addition, about 80% of the world's net savings invested in the United States. Therefore, the deterioration of the U.S. economy is bound to affect the development of the world economy and the economic interests of the countries concerned. Even if the U.S. economy to achieve a According to economists estimate that U.S. economic growth reduced by 2 to 3 percentage points, the world's economic growth rate will drop from 0.75 to 1 percentage point. On this basis, international agencies, some countries and this year, economists generally lower growth rate of world trade. This year 25 to 31 January in Davos during the World Economic Forum, IMF First Deputy President Richard Fisher, speaking at the conference,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], given the slowdown in U.S. economic growth disadvantage on the world economy impact of the IMF world economic growth this year will last September from 4.2% forecast down to 3.5%. Some economists forecast a growth rate of world trade from 12% last year to 7%. Because of a unified European market, especially the European Union External Trade 3 / 4 is between the EU member states, and they also have a common currency - the euro, the economy is relatively independent, but also by the drag will be relatively smaller. The European Commission believes that economic growth in Europe this year, up 3.2%, possibly for the first time surpassed the United States. Japan and other Asian economies dependent on the U.S. market due to deep, its economic base and the Asian financial crisis and fragile economy has yet to adjust, and government leaders in many countries is a problem, and therefore these countries economy will bear the brunt of economic growth will have different degrees of deceleration, the stock market and currency fluctuations will appear larger. Developing countries and transition economies will be affected by the worsening U.S. economy, Latin America's economic growth rate this year from the original forecast of 4.5% to 4%, African economies more difficult. Russia as the world economic slowdown, oil prices, economic growth rate of 7% last year (about 3 percent surge in oil prices driven) difficult to sustain. Deteriorating economic situation in the United States on China's economy both directly and indirectly, and can not be underestimated. Sino-US trade in recent years a rapid growth trend. According to China Customs data between 1996 - 1999 the average annual growth rate of Sino-US trade reached 12.8%, 20o0, China's total imports and exports to the United States of China's foreign trade accounted for 15.7% of the total,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], if taken into account by the Hong Kong re-exported to the U.S. trade, the share can reach 27%. Sino-US trade volume in 2000 reached 74.46 billion U.S. dollars,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], of which China's exports to the U.S. $ 52,100,000,000. United States is China's largest export market, the fifth largest import market. U.S. economic slowdown, trade weaker demand, will inevitably have an impact on our economy. The most intuitive result is not only China-US trade will decline directly, but the amount of re-exports of Hong Kong will have a corresponding extent. In addition to trade,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but also by commodity prices, foreign investment, exchange rates and stock prices of different ways an impact on our economy. China's export commodity structure from the point of view, the most affected will be the iron and steel, coke, electrical accessories, such as the production of raw materials and semi-finished products. Cheap and basic necessities such as labor-intensive products are less affected. While the U.S. economy Should be noted that the U.S. economy and the impact of slowing world economic growth, China's foreign trade will tend to trend lower, on the whole situation can not be taken lightly. With the worsening U.S. economic situation, Sino-US trade dispute will be further intensified. First, the trade imbalance. According to the U.S. statistics, the U.S. trade deficit from 1999 to 200o 680 billion in 800 million (according to Chinese statistics, 297 million), under which the U.S. government and Congress will make a big fuss. Followed by the United States more and more anti-dumping cases Fangdui Hua, such as steel. Therefore, our current economic deterioration in the U.S. need to pay close attention and take appropriate countermeasures, as far as possible to reduce the negative impact to a minimum. (Department of the State Council Development Research Center of the World Development Institute Fellow) Editor: Du Fu 61
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