China LPG Market 2004 Review _4608 -

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2004 Review of the domestic LPG market

LPG production in April 20o5 13 No. 4 International Petroleum Economics coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee coffee making ¨ 6 § § § § stare South /, by the She I cars - by Lai Taiwan -, / - F / Canton, ... ... / /, / r / / / 'plant, plant .,/-/, ,//-, a ..--/ ,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], / / works - ', a / / a -'',- a .。'---/ January 2 Month 3 Months April 5 Months 6 Months July 8 月 September 1O FIGURE dated 12 November 52004 and the International crude oil price chart PG LPG market prices began to fall. the average price of 3200 yuan / ton average price drop left j were 1,500 yuan / International crude oil prices, driven by factors that affect the domestic LPG in the market to price changes in the following areas. ± port LPG LPG growth weak import growth in China in recent years, the average annual count, the number of imports in 2004 should increase the degree, but due to the impact of the international LPG 2004, LPG imports rose. particularly in December only imported tons, kL2oo3 significant reduction over the same period in 2004 the lowest number of imports in a l04, Tuen Mun East China LPG imports, more than 2.03 million tons in 2003 under the North China, Northeast China imports 129,000 l3 years 19.8% 16.1 tons down. area imports of growth. the place # import LPG442.22 tons, of 4,321,600 tons has increased by only 2. the second half of the domestic LPG production slowdown in domestic oil demand growth driven by rising to meet market needs, the two groups to improve the processing volume, making the first half of the LPG production volume growth of goods higher. July, the international crude oil prices rose significantly, refinery production costs increase, most of the refinery crude oil processing volume reduced to varying degrees. At this point the domestic market prices of chemical products, reached a historical high prices, most refineries have chemical plant to adjust the product structure and improve the chemical production volume, a corresponding reduction in the production of LPG. the second half of LPG is lower than the growth rate of goods production in the first half, also pulled up the price of LPG marketing. 3. West to East on the LPG market structure with a natural gas pipeline operations across the board, East LPG market started to carry out structural adjustment. Shanghai is expected to have 10 million cubic meters of natural gas supply industrial, commercial and residential users, and thus directly reduce the demand for LPG. Also in the West-East Gas along the pipeline, there are many cities like Wuhan, Changsha, Nanjing and Hangzhou, will also benefit from relatively cheap natural gas prices to benefit, reducing the need to MARKE a __ LPG demand. As the market share of natural gas compression by , the vendor is expected to lose some users, combined with the high cost of imported LPG, therefore, LPG distributors of imported cautious. IV liquefied petroleum gas market in 2005 price forecast in 2005 will remain the international energy market prices rising year,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], estimated crude oil prices will remain at 45 dollars / barrel fluctuations. April 2005 Saudi LPG contract price (CP) offer for the propane $ 415 / ton,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], butane $ 418 / ton, respectively, compared with the average price in 2004 higher than the $ 65.77 / ton and $ 62.62 / ton, compared with March 2004, respectively, higher than the minimum price of 150 U.S. dollars / ton. 3,4 month of the 2005 CP Price, the price is still 4,200 yuan import LPG / ton; March 2004 in accordance with the minimum offer price of imported LPG in 2900 yuan / ton; is expected to import LPG prices in 2005 will be 4,000 yuan / ton. In 2004 per capita consumption of LPG and 15.5 kg, compared with United States,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Japan and other developed countries far behind. With the continuous development of the national economy and natural gas, LNG import projects forward, part of the city's natural gas LPG consumption will be replaced, but in rural areas, LPG demand will continue to increase the potential for future growth in LPG is still large. At present, China's production of LPG products can not meet the need. caution in imports and importers under the constraints of high prices, to meet the needs of the domestic LPG market to some extent, still rely on domestic refining improve the yield of LPG plant. As the overall tight supply, therefore, forecast 2005 sales price of LPG will continue at a high level on volatility. Received :2005 - 04 - 10 Editor: Xia Lihong International Petroleum Economics 2oo5 first in April 13 No. 4 17

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